U.S. inflation lifts September Fed hike odds to nearly 90%

  • Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations rose sharply after August inflation data exceeded forecasts.
  • August CPI rose 3.4% year over year, while monthly growth accelerated to 0.4%.
  • CME FedWatch showed September hike odds climbing from roughly 70% to nearly 90%.

U.S. inflation has accelerated, sharply increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve will resume raising interest rates at next week's policy meeting. August Consumer Price Index (CPI), a broad measure of consumer prices, rose 3.4% from a year earlier, above the 3.3% consensus, while monthly growth accelerated to 0.4% from 0.1% in July. Core CPI increased 0.3% month over month, exceeding economists' 0.2% forecast. CME Group's FedWatch tool showed the probability of a 25-basis-point hike rising from roughly 70% before the data to nearly 90% afterward. Markets are pricing at least three additional increases by June next year, reflecting concern that any renewed tightening could develop into a broader cycle rather than a one-off move. Wall Street Journal chief economics correspondent Nick Timiraos, widely known as the "Fed whisperer," said a hike would suggest officials view current rates as insufficiently restrictive. Former Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida and current Fed Governor Christopher Waller expressed similar views. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has also previously rejected fine-tuning the economy through small incremental adjustments. The outlook is complicated by Middle East conflicts, oil prices above $100 per barrel, tariff policies, and pressure from artificial-intelligence infrastructure on electricity and supply chains. Next week's economic projections and dot plot, which summarizes officials' expected interest-rate paths, will be closely watched alongside later inflation, oil-price, and labor-market data.

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U.S. inflation lifts September Fed hike odds to nearly 90% - CoinPost Terminal