Oil surges 3% as Asia stocks slide ahead of US, Japan rate decisions

  • Oil prices jumped as attacks and shipping threats raised concerns about energy supplies.
  • 86% of markets priced a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve increase on Wednesday.
  • The postponed Oman meeting was scheduled to discuss opening the Strait of Hormuz.

Asian share markets fell Monday as renewed supply concerns pushed Brent crude up 3.1% to $107.84 a barrel and investors prepared for possible rate increases by the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan. Brent had gained almost 9% the previous week, while U.S. crude rose 2.8% to $102.85. New strikes on Saudi Arabia and ships in the Gulf, an attack on a Saudi oil pipeline and an advance by Yemen's Houthis heightened concern about wartime disruption to global energy supplies. An Oman meeting between Iran and Gulf Arab states on a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz was postponed, while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb remained under threat. Analysts fear prolonged disruption could keep oil prices elevated and add to global inflation. Markets priced an 86% chance of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate increase Wednesday, followed by another move by December. That would be the first U.S. rate hike since mid-2023. JPMorgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli said he expects two Federal Reserve increases this year, in September and December, and warned that failing to support policy guidance with action could damage the institution's credibility. He said incoming data would determine whether the moves were a limited recalibration or the beginning of a more sustained hiking cycle, adding that he expected the former but saw risks of the latter. Nikkei futures fell 2% to 63,260 versus a cash close of 64,011; S&P 500 futures lost 0.5%, and Nasdaq futures fell 1.0%. Treasury futures edged higher after heavy selling in recent weeks. Two-year yields rose 26 basis points last week and 10-year yields increased 19 basis points as the yield curve flattened. Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist Ben Snider said strong corporate earnings could support Wall Street if borrowing costs rise. He noted that the S&P 500 has averaged a 2% loss in the three months after the start of seven hiking cycles, but a 9% gain in the 12 months after the first hike. Markets also priced a 76% chance that the Bank of Japan would raise its cash rate by a quarter point to 1.25% on Friday. The BOJ was expected to signal further tightening as it sought to prevent the yen from weakening again after market intervention helped lift it from a 40-year low. The dollar stood at 153.77 yen, down about 4% over two weeks from a July peak of 163.99. The euro was little changed at $1.1600 after finding support at $1.1570 Friday. Sterling held at $1.3518, with the Bank of England expected to keep its rate at 3.75% Thursday, although the decision could again be split. Gold fell 0.3% to $4,336 an ounce as higher bond yields reduced the appeal of the non-interest-paying asset.

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