The implied probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law fell to 18% on Polymarket at 8 p.m. EDT on Sept. 14, after the contract had reached about 34% earlier that day. The contract, which had $17.19 million in cumulative volume, requires H.R. 3633 to pass both congressional chambers and receive the president’s signature by Dec. 31. Grayscale had highlighted Polymarket and Kalshi estimates near 29% earlier in the afternoon. The retreat came as disagreements remained over stablecoin rewards and state enforcement authority. Eight banking trade groups urged Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Democratic Leader Charles Schumer to tighten the bill’s stablecoin provisions, while New York Attorney General Letitia James and 17 other state attorneys general opposed federal preemption provisions. Supporters need 60 votes to advance the measure, compared with 53 Republican-held seats. The Senate’s cloture motion was scheduled to ripen at 2:15 p.m. EDT on Sept. 15, but that vote would only begin a process requiring Senate approval, House acceptance of any amended version, and presidential signature by Dec. 31. The 18% reading extended a broader decline from 82% in February and 21% on Aug. 9, despite 126 revisions requested by Senate Democrats.