Russia and Ukraine carried out overnight strikes despite former U.S. President Donald Trump’s assertion that both sides had agreed not to target energy facilities. The continued attacks indicate that the conflict remains active and that diplomatic efforts, including stalled U.S.-mediated negotiations, have not produced a broader settlement. Prediction-market pricing puts the chance of a ceasefire agreement by December 31 at 22% YES, reflecting reduced confidence in a near-term deal. Observers are expected to watch statements from Trump, Putin and Zelensky, along with further U.S. diplomatic activity and major military actions, for potential changes in market expectations. Continued fighting could keep pricing near current levels, while diplomatic breakthroughs could shift sentiment.