U.S. futures edge higher ahead of pivotal Federal Reserve rate decision

  • Federal Reserve officials prepare to announce an interest-rate decision on Wednesday.
  • 92% odds supported a quarter-point hike, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
  • August CPI inflation was 3.4%, down from 4.2% in May.

U.S. equity futures were little changed Tuesday evening ahead of a pivotal Federal Reserve (U.S. central bank) interest-rate decision that could begin a new hiking cycle over the next few months. Dow futures rose 0.08%, S&P 500 futures gained 0.09% and Nasdaq-100 futures advanced 0.07%. The CME FedWatch tool put the odds of a quarter-point increase on Wednesday at 92%, while pricing a 45% chance of another quarter-point hike in October and a 30% chance in December. The current target rate range is 3.5% to 3.75%. The decision comes as the White House presses the central bank to hold rates steady. Council of Economic Advisers chairman Christopher Phelan called a hike a "mistake" and said inflation data had been moving in the right direction. August consumer-price data showed annual CPI inflation at 3.4%, down from 4.2% in May, while monthly CPI rose 0.4% as expected. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3%, above expectations. Oil prices climbed after Saudi Arabia reportedly cancelled shipments following drone attacks on a key export pipeline, with West Texas Intermediate up 4.4% to $105.83 a barrel and Brent up 2.9% to $108.75. Treasury yields also rose, with the 10-year yield slightly above 5% and the 30-year yield at 5.369%. U.S. stocks fell during Tuesday’s session, while semiconductor, cloud-service and other technology shares declined after leaders of large language model companies discussed potentially slowing product-release schedules over the weekend.

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