Gary Black says 25-basis-point Fed hike could lower 10-year yields and support equities

  • Gary Black urged a one-off Fed rate increase to support equities.
  • 5.04% was the session high for the 10-year Treasury yield.
  • The Fed’s increase would be its first since July 2023.

Future Fund's Gary Black said a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate increase, if presented as a one-off move, could reduce 10-year Treasury yields and provide more support to equities than a prolonged tightening cycle. He argued that acting now could prevent Fed Chair Kevin Warsh from being forced into multiple increases later, which he said would pressure growth stocks. Black also linked potentially lower Brent prices to a possible negotiated end to the war by President Donald Trump, saying that could help Republicans in the midterm elections. Brent was down 0.89% at $107.54 and WTI futures fell 1.65% to $104.08. U.S. annual inflation was 3.4% in August, while gasoline prices rose 3.9% during the month and contributed more than a third of the overall increase. Investor Peter Schiff took the opposing view, saying a quarter-point move would be insufficient to contain inflation and that Treasury bonds would continue selling off. The 10-year yield had risen above 5% for a fifth consecutive session, while the CME FedWatch tool put the probability of a hike at 92.4%.

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