Global bond selloff lifts U.S. 10-year yield to 5.04%, China stays at 1.69%

  • Global bond markets sold off across major economies, while China remained an outlier.
  • U.S. 10-year yields reached 5.04%, while China’s 10-year yield stood at 1.69%.
  • China held benchmark loan prime rates unchanged for 15 consecutive months through August.

A global bond selloff has driven borrowing costs to multi-decade highs across the U.S., UK, France, Germany and Japan, contrasting sharply with China, where the 10-year government bond yield is 1.69%, near record lows. The U.S. 10-year yield reached 5.04%, its highest since 2007; UK 30-year yields reached their highest since 1998; France's 10-year yield its highest since 2008; Germany's 10-year yield its highest since 2009; and Japan's 10-year yield its highest since 1996. China's multi-year deflationary stretch and the continuing effects of the 2021 property crash have weakened consumption and price growth, supporting expectations for accommodative policy from the People's Bank of China (China's central bank). The bank has held its benchmark loan prime rates at record lows for 15 consecutive months through August, keeping the one-year rate at 3.00% and the five-year rate at 3.50%. Oil's rise above $100 a barrel amid the conflict in Iran has increased expectations for further rate hikes. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates Wednesday for the first time since 2023, with CME FedWatch assigning a 92.4% probability, while the European Central Bank raised rates last week. Foreign investors bought more U.S. stocks than Treasuries through June, with international equity flows reaching 2.8% of U.S. GDP compared with 2% for Treasuries, according to Deutsche Bank analysis cited by the Financial Times and economist Mohamed El-Erian. The shift was the first this century outside brief periods during the COVID-19 pandemic and the aftermath of the global financial crisis. The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF closed 0.12% lower at $90.82 on Tuesday and rose 0.02% in early premarket trading Wednesday. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF fell 0.06% to $80.66 and declined another 0.06% in premarket trading. Benzinga edge rankings placed the 7-10 Year Treasury ETF's Momentum score in the 25th percentile, with a negative price trend across the short, medium and long term.

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