10-year Treasury yield briefly tops 5% as markets weigh Fed rate hike

  • 10-year U.S. Treasury yields briefly exceeded 5% before settling near 4.994%.
  • Traders assigned an 89.5% probability to a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve increase Wednesday.
  • Scott Bessent linked higher yields to international economic forces during congressional testimony.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly surpassed 5% for the first time in 19 years before easing to approximately 4.994% by Wednesday morning, reviving concerns across financial markets. Traders assigned an 89.5% probability to a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate increase that would lift interest rates to their highest level in twelve months. Persistent inflation, higher oil prices and more hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric have pushed yields higher, although weak New York manufacturing data and renewed bond buying moderated the move. Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, said real yields (bond returns after inflation) were the main driver, with real yields at 2.55%, their highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent attributed the increase to global economic forces while acknowledging the need to address the United States’ fiscal imbalance and supporting increased repurchases of long-duration debt. Colas said 5% yields do not pose a substantial threat to equities because strong corporate profit growth is offsetting pressure from higher discount rates. He favored software, energy and financial stocks, while the key issue for markets is whether sustained 10-year yields near 5% prompt further Treasury intervention.

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