East-West Pipeline attack sends Persian Gulf crude premiums to $38

  • Saudi Arabia shut the East-West Pipeline after attacks in Riyadh and Medina.
  • $38 per barrel was paid above Dubai for two Omani crude cargoes.
  • Japan, China and India secured Middle East cargoes for October and November delivery.

An attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline has disrupted Middle East crude flows, prompting Asian refiners to secure cargoes earlier than usual and driving Persian Gulf spot premiums (extra cost over a benchmark price) to $38 per barrel over Dubai. Japan's Eneos Holdings and Idemitsu Kosan bought Omani crude for loading as early as October, a month ahead of their normal schedule, while China's Shandong Dongming Petrochemical and Shenghong Group purchased October-to-November supplies and India's state-owned oil companies booked October cargoes through tenders. The pipeline, which can transport approximately 7 million barrels per day, was shut after attacks in the Riyadh and Medina regions, creating a potential shortfall of about 4 million barrels per day, or 4% of global supply. Saudi Aramco has delayed some European deliveries and canceled certain September shipments, while Yanbu Port inventories cover only 5 to 7 days of exports. Red Sea exports fell by 4.5 million barrels per day in August from July, further limiting prompt cargoes. Japan's dependence on Middle East crude is particularly high, with 90% of its imports coming from the region before the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict; its refineries are configured for high-sulfur, heavy crude and would require substantial investment to process more U.S. light crude. Disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and Yemen's Red Sea coast have compounded supply concerns. WTI October futures rose 4.38% to $105.83 a barrel and Brent November futures gained 2.9%, while institutions warned that Brent could reach $120, or as high as $150 in extreme scenarios. Persistently high oil prices are also reshaping expectations for Bank of Japan policy, with nearly 90% of economists expecting a 25-basis-point rate increase to 1.25% this Friday. Markets will focus on pipeline repairs and whether Persian Gulf premiums retreat as supply recovers.

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