Bitcoin analyst sees 90% chance market has reached a bottom

  • Bitcoin and altcoins fell sharply after the Clarity Act failed to pass in the US.
  • Six-to-12-month Bitcoin holdings rose from 16.2% to 30.8%.
  • Willy Woo put the chance of a true market bottom above 90%.

Bitcoin and altcoins fell sharply after the Clarity Act failed to pass in the US, but analysts are assessing whether the decline has produced a market bottom. CryptoQuant analyst IT Tech said Bitcoin holdings are shifting from shorter-term to longer-term ownership, a pattern associated with previous market lows. Bitcoin supply dormant for six to 12 months rose from 16.2% of total cost of ownership on December 16 last year to 30.8%, while the three-to-six-month cohort fell from 24.8% to 7.7%. Holdings aged 12 to 18 months and 18 months to two years also rose to 17.0% and 9.9%, respectively. IT Tech said Bitcoin remained in wallets during the correction instead of moving to exchanges, suggesting some short-term holders shifted into longer-term ownership. The analyst views the pattern as typical of the early stages of a bull market and similar to flows seen before the 2022 market bottom. Bitcoin remains 40% below its $126,000 peak last October but above its 2022 lows, leading IT Tech to characterize the setup as closer to a temporary bottom within an ascending cycle than the ultimate bottom of a full cycle. On-chain analyst Willy Woo said there is a more than 90% chance that Bitcoin's current structure marks a true market bottom, citing the return of investor capital and changes in market liquidity. Woo said the traditional four-year cycle, while previously useful, is no longer his primary reference and that Bitcoin may increasingly track liquidity and debt cycles in traditional financial markets. He cautioned that the duration of any new uptrend remains uncertain even if a bottom has formed.

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