The Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver its first interest-rate increase since 2023 at its 2 p.m. ET policy announcement. The move could intensify tensions between Chairman Kevin Warsh and President Trump. Markets were largely calm beforehand: the Nasdaq and S&P 500 opened higher, the Dow was flat, the 10-year Treasury yield slipped just below 5%, and Brent crude futures eased slightly to about $107 a barrel. The rate decision comes as a widening conflict in the Middle East has pushed up oil prices and strengthened inflation expectations. Foreign ministers from Iran and China held talks in Beijing on Wednesday, after which Beijing said it wanted to prevent further escalation in Yemen, where Iran-aligned Houthi rebels have taken effective control of a crucial Red Sea shipping route. The source also included related items on a stagnant housing market facing a 7% mortgage rate, difficulties American businesses have setting prices, Apple’s updated Siri and its position in the artificial-intelligence race, OpenAI considering a pre-IPO funding round at a valuation above $1.2 trillion, Americans spending an additional $100 billion on fuel during the Iran war, a live Q&A about the iPhone Duo, iOS 27 and Siri, a European startup facing a shakedown after giving data to a scammer, the outlook after the 10-year Treasury yield crossed 5%, the possibility that bond yields could fall as quickly as they rose, and AXA’s new growth targets.