Wall Street weighs more than 100 basis points of potential Fed tightening

  • Major Wall Street banks are monitoring Kevin Warsh’s signals on possible additional Federal Reserve tightening.
  • More than 100 basis points of further tightening could be priced if Warsh signals consecutive rate increases.
  • Goldman Sachs and BMO expect the Fed to review several rounds of inflation data first.

Major Wall Street banks are assessing signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh ahead of the Fed’s rate decision, with the outlook for further tightening unresolved. Barclays expects Warsh to retain a hawkish message, citing solid growth, a labor market near full employment and still-elevated inflation, while Citi, UBS and Nomura anticipate limited guidance on future rates. Goldman Sachs and BMO expect the central bank to review several rounds of inflation data before taking further action. Bank of America said consecutive rate increases could lead markets to price in more than 100 basis points of additional tightening, while a dovish message could weaken confidence in the Fed’s 2% inflation target. Deutsche Bank and TD also view Warsh’s tone as important for assessing the future path of interest rates.

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