The Bank of England is widely expected to keep its Bank Rate at 3.75% on Thursday, even as surging energy prices increase pressure for a later increase. Only three of nine Monetary Policy Committee members were seen voting for a hike this week, while financial markets priced an 80% chance of a quarter-point increase in November. Investors expect around four hikes over the next year, but only about one in eight economists in a Reuters poll predicted a November move. British natural gas and Brent crude futures have risen almost 20% this month after the Iran war pushed energy prices higher. Inflation was 3.1% in August, above the BoE’s 2% target, which it has missed in all but three months over the past five years. J.P. Morgan economist Allan Monks expects the BoE to wait until November but said energy prices point to inflation peaking at 3.9% in February. Other analysts point to a cooling labor market and already-elevated market interest rates as reasons for caution. The BoE is also due to publish its annual plan for reducing its balance sheet through government-bond sales. The Telegraph reported that it could stop selling 20-year and 30-year gilts, and potentially sell gilts to the Debt Management Office instead of the secondary market. Such a change could provide fiscal flexibility for finance minister John Healey ahead of his first budget statement on October 28.