G10 central banks tighten as markets price more rate hikes than Fed projections

  • Major G10 central banks are maintaining or preparing tighter monetary policy.
  • Australia's policy rate reached 4.35% after three increases this year.
  • Markets expect further hikes in several economies despite mixed growth and inflation risks.

Major central banks in the Group of 10 developed economies are moving toward tighter policy, with the Federal Reserve recalibrating its stance on Wednesday and signaling further increases. Traders are pricing a more aggressive path than the Fed's dot plot, a chart showing policymakers' interest-rate projections. Economists say markets are overpricing future increases amid concern that an oil shock could worsen after Houthis seized a strategic stretch of Red Sea coastline, signaling a more assertive stance by the Iran-backed militia. Australia has the highest policy rate at 4.35%, followed by Norway at 4.25% and Britain at 3.75%. The Reserve Bank of Australia has raised rates three times this year, while Norges Bank is nearing the end of its tightening cycle. The Bank of England held rates at 3.75%, though three policymakers backed an increase and Governor Andrew Bailey warned that prolonged conflict in the Middle East could require tighter policy. The Fed raised rates and projected one more increase in 2026, followed by a hold in 2027, while traders price more than one increase this year and roughly three moves by the end of 2027. New Zealand, the euro zone and Canada also face expectations for further increases. Sweden is expected to hold at 1.75%, Japan is expected to raise rates to 1.25%, and Switzerland is expected to keep its rate at 0% while a strong franc limits inflation pressure.

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