The Iran conflict has entered its seventh month with no clear end in sight, leaving energy markets without a reliable baseline for forecasting, according to commodities strategists at JPMorgan led by Natasha Kaneva. The Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf chokepoint handling global energy flows, is effectively closed to through traffic, with daily crossings in the low double digits versus more than 120 before the war. Houthi militants have intensified pressure on Saudi Arabia from Yemen, while Tehran-backed militia groups in Iraq struck Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which had become the main rerouting option for oil trapped in the Persian Gulf. Brent and WTI futures were around $100 a barrel, U.S. gasoline was above $4 a gallon, diesel exceeded $6 a gallon and the 10-year Treasury yield surpassed 5%. Global crude and refined-product inventories have fallen by about 555 million barrels, far below JPMorgan's initial forecast of a 1.4 billion- to 1.6 billion-barrel draw. The market has absorbed the disruption primarily through demand reduction, with global oil demand since March more than 4 million barrels per day below last year's levels, while U.S. producers increase output toward record levels. However, demand is recovering in China, the world's swing buyer of crude, and government and commercial stocks are becoming harder to draw down. JPMorgan said available buffers remain sufficient to contain prices for now, but global mechanisms for clearing oil sales are under increasing stress absent a major diplomatic breakthrough.