Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl said the Federal Reserve’s latest rate increase, and a possible second hike this year, should not materially alter crypto-market conditions. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lifted its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, but Bitcoin climbed rather than selling off. Pandl compared the move with the Fed’s one-off increase in March 1997, when the Nasdaq bull market continued, rather than with the 550 basis points of tightening from March 2022 through July 2023 that increased the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin and other non-interest-bearing assets. He described the latest decision as a mid-cycle adjustment rather than a cyclical shift and said one or two rate increases expected for 2026 would not substantially change capital allocation. The impact is likely to vary within crypto: stablecoin issuers such as Circle and Tether can earn more revenue when cash rates rise, while higher yields on tokenized bonds and money market funds could attract capital onchain. CME FedWatch data put the probability of another increase at the October 28 meeting at 54.2% and the chance that rates would be higher by the December 9 meeting at 88.2%. A further 40.3% probability was assigned to a target range of 4.25%-4.50%. Projections show 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more increase in 2026, while a Wall St Engine post said 12 of 18 officials expected another hike this year. The Fed’s projected rates were raised across 2026-2028, to 4.1% in 2026 versus 3.8% in June, 4.1% in 2027 versus 3.6%, 3.9% in 2028 versus 3.4%, and 3.2% over the long run versus 3.1%. The Fed now projects one more hike this year followed by one cut by the end of 2028. A December increase would test whether crypto treats the current policy move as a temporary adjustment or a broader change in direction.