Polymarket, a prediction market (platform for trading event probabilities), now gives a 54% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in October, up 7 percentage points over 24 hours. The probability of rates remaining unchanged fell to 46%, down 8 percentage points. A senior government official previously said an October hike, coming on the eve of the midterm elections, could bring Warsh under closer scrutiny from Donald Trump and his advisers. Trump’s description of a hostile Federal Reserve Board has also raised questions among investors about whether Warsh is leading the central bank or being constrained by it. PPP promoted its signal-delivery community and provided a link to the Polymarket event.