Democratic midterm enthusiasm reaches 76% as party’s House prospects improve

  • Democrats’ House prospects have improved as Trump’s approval rating and economic concerns weigh on Republicans.
  • 76% of Democratic voters were very enthusiastic about voting, versus 55% of Republican voters, Marquette found.
  • Cook rates 21 House races as toss-ups, including 16 Republican-held seats, while Republicans retain a Senate edge.

Democrats’ prospects of regaining control of the House have improved in recent weeks, according to multiple polls and election trackers, as President Donald Trump’s approval rating remains low and economic concerns weigh on his party. A Marquette poll found that 76% of registered Democratic voters and Democratic-leaning voters were very enthusiastic about voting in the midterms, compared with 55% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters. The Cook Political Report rates 21 House races as toss-ups, including 16 held by Republicans. Democrats need a net gain of three seats to take back the chamber. Republicans are favored to retain control of the Senate because more of the 33 contested seats are in solidly Republican territory than solidly Democratic states. Five of the seven Senate toss-ups are held by Democrats, and Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win the majority. Trump’s approval rating has remained around 38% for weeks as negotiations to end the Iran war have faltered and gas prices have risen. He has also escalated the U.S. trade war with Canada, despite polls showing broad opposition to his tariffs. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate for the first time since 2023 on Wednesday, while inflation increased from 2.4% over 12 months in January to 3.4% last month. Trump has urged voters to pretend he is on the ballot and has dismissed concerns about affordability. At last week’s Republican midterm convention in Dallas, he called affordability fake and blamed Democrats for what he described as an affordability crisis. He directed Republicans to emphasize no-bail policies, his signature voter ID law, declining prescription-drug prices, the 2017 tax cuts made permanent last year, and the elimination of diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives across the federal government. Republicans plan major advertising campaigns in the coming weeks, using their financial advantage. As of July, the Republican National Committee had more than $130 million on hand, compared with $16 million for the Democratic National Committee, while Trump’s super PAC had $403 million. Those campaigns could shift the dynamics of the races.

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