US stocks fall as 10-year Treasury yield tops 5% and oil exceeds $102

  • US stock indexes finished lower as Treasury yields and oil prices rose.
  • 10-year Treasury yields exceeded 5%, while WTI crude reached approximately $102.82 per barrel.
  • Federal Reserve pricing showed a 44.3% chance of another 50 basis points in increases this year.

Major US stock indexes ended lower Friday as a renewed rise in Treasury yields and crude oil prices reversed early gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 200 points, or 0.4%, while the S&P 500 declined 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.1%. The 10-year Treasury yield moved back above 5%, and the 2-year yield reached 4.75%, increasing the financing burden for companies and making fixed-income assets more attractive relative to equities. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.9% to about $102.82 a barrel after briefly trading below $100 earlier in the week. Supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, tied to the protracted Iranian conflict entering its seventh month, continued to support energy prices. Bloomberg reported that Saudi Arabia had told European refiners they would receive no crude oil next month amid an East-West pipeline shutdown, while European customers normally receive Saudi crude under term contracts. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points this week, its first rate adjustment in three years, but market confidence that one increase will contain inflation remained limited. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon told Yahoo Finance, "It’s not clear to me we’ve slayed inflation." CME FedWatch Tool pricing showed the probability of another 50 basis points of increases this year rising to 44.3% from 41.7% a day earlier, while the chance of rates remaining unchanged fell to 9.8% from 11%. Friday also marked triple witching, when stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options expire simultaneously. Joe Mazzola, Charles Schwab’s head trading strategist, warned that volatility may increase as investors reposition portfolios before quarter-end. Semiconductor shares were comparatively resilient despite a midweek correction, while comments from Anthropic and OpenAI calling for slower artificial-intelligence development were partly blamed for the earlier selloff. The Bank of Japan also raised rates this week, taking borrowing costs to their highest level in three decades. With no major corporate earnings or economic data scheduled Friday, investors focused on how far the Federal Reserve might tighten policy if inflation persists. The Dow was heading toward a negative weekly result before the closing bell.

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