President Trump is preparing for a September 24 meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping with fewer public threats than in previous summit preparations. The talks are expected to address extensions to the trade truce, tariffs and access to critical minerals. China controls roughly 70% of global rare earth mining capacity, according to consultancy AlixPartners, as well as about 85% of refining and around 90% of finished rare earth metal alloys and magnets. These materials are used in F-35 fighter jets, electric vehicles, wind turbines, smartphones and MRI machines, giving Beijing significant leverage during trade disputes. A one-year suspension of Chinese rare earth export controls is set to expire around November 2026, about two months after the summit. Trump has not imposed new tariffs or export bans ahead of the meeting, unlike the more escalatory positioning seen before previous summits. China’s reported failure to deliver rare earth materials in line with U.S. expectations makes confrontation more risky for American manufacturers. During a 2010 dispute with Japan, Chinese export restrictions sent prices for some elements up by more than tenfold. Washington is investing in domestic mining and processing to reduce dependence on China, but the United States lacks enough refining capacity to replace Chinese supply meaningfully, and credible independence timelines extend well into the next decade. Companies are also seeking suppliers in Australia, Canada and parts of Africa. The summit agenda reflects the economic interdependence between the two countries, while China continues to value access to American technology markets and agricultural exports.