The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.951% on Monday, extending its retreat from last week’s 19-year high of 5.041%. HSBC now expects the yield to reach about 4.65% by year-end rather than 6%, citing falling oil prices and hopes for a deal with Iran as factors that have eased market pressure. The bank raised its year-end forecasts for both the two-year and 10-year Treasury yields, however, to 4.20% from 3.85% and 4.65% from 4.30%, respectively. HSBC’s base case remains that the Federal Reserve will hold rates through 2027, although it sees near-even odds of a hike during the current cycle and described the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed’s policy-setting panel, as being on a fine edge. It attributed some easing in the summer term premium, the extra yield investors demand for holding longer-term bonds, to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks, while warning that persistent fiscal deficits could keep longer-dated yields under pressure. Other forecasts remain higher: iCapital sees 5.3%, Deutsche Bank continues to flag 6% ahead, and ZeroHedge’s bear case also reaches 6%. Miller Tabak’s Matt Maley identifies 4.8% as the more immediate test, while Deutsche Bank’s historical analysis suggests a 6% move is more likely to be a 2027 development than a near-term event. Upcoming Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data, jobless claims and several Fed speeches will provide tests for the competing forecasts.