CLARITY Act odds fall to 6% as SEC, CFTC guidance eases urgency

  • Chris Perkins argued SEC and CFTC actions provided clarity, reducing need for CLARITY Act.
  • 6% is the current 2026 enactment probability, down from 18% one week earlier.
  • Seven Democratic senators revived CLARITY Act discussions after its September 15 Senate setback.

Odds of the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 have fallen to 6% from 18% a week earlier, as temporary guidance from the SEC (U.S. securities regulator) and CFTC (U.S. derivatives regulator) appears to have reduced the perceived urgency for legislation. Chris Perkins of Franklin Crypto argued on the Bits + Bips podcast that the agencies' recent actions provided the clarity institutions were seeking and could lessen the need for the bill. Co-hosts noted that the guidance is temporary, while seven Democratic senators have revived discussions over the CLARITY Act, which would divide digital-asset oversight between the SEC and CFTC. The measure failed to advance in the Senate on September 15, but renewed bipartisan talks show that legislative interest remains. Market participants are watching statements from President Donald Trump, Senate leaders, crypto industry figures and policy advisers, as well as any changes in agency guidance or progress in negotiations, for signs of a more permanent regulatory framework.

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