Iranian flights to Baghdad, Muscat and Azerbaijan have been suspended after new U.S. sanctions targeted the country’s aviation sector. The measures warn foreign airports and service providers that they could face penalties for handling Iranian airlines, extending the U.S.-Iran confrontation beyond financial restrictions into flight operations. Market pricing reflects a 24.5% YES scenario for a full Iranian airspace closure by December 31, while short-term odds of a September 30 closure have declined. Further signals from the Civil Aviation Organization of Iran and official NOTAMs (aviation notices affecting airspace and flights) will be closely watched. A declaration of full closure by the organization, or signs of de-escalation from U.S. officials, could significantly influence prediction-market pricing. Vera is promoted as a provider of live prediction-market analysis.