CME sees 54.2% chance of 25-basis-point Fed hike in October

2026年9月23日00:31 (31d ago)

CME FedWatch priced October Fed rate-hike and hold probabilities.
54.2% was assigned to a 25-basis-point October increase.
December probabilities were 10.8% hold, 47.8% cumulative 25-basis-point hike, and 41.4% cumulative 50-basis-point hike.

CME FedWatch pricing on Sept. 23 showed a 54.2% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points at its October meeting, compared with a 45.8% chance of holding the target range at 3.75%-4.00%. For December, the market assigned a 10.8% probability to rates remaining at 3.75%-4.00%, a 47.8% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point increase and a 41.4% probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point increase.