OECD raises 2026 global growth forecast to 2.9% despite energy risks

  • OECD raised its 2026 global growth forecast despite prolonged conflict and elevated energy prices.
  • 2.9% is the revised 2026 global growth forecast, up from 2.8% in June.
  • OECD warned growth could slow to 2.3% next year under combined market and commodity pressures.

The OECD raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.9% from 2.8% in June, saying economic activity has remained more resilient than expected despite elevated energy prices and a prolonged Middle East conflict. G20 inflation is now projected to average 4.1% this year, up from 4%, while 2027 growth is expected to be slightly weaker as higher energy costs filter through the global economy. AI-driven investment in semiconductors, electronics and data centers is supporting growth in the United States and other economies, creating divergent outcomes across countries. The OECD sharply cut Saudi Arabia’s outlook to a 1.8% contraction this year, while raising South Korea’s forecast to 3.7%. It also lifted U.S. growth forecasts to 2.2% this year and 2.1% in 2027. India’s 2026 forecast rose to 7.1%, while China’s remained at 4.5%. The organization warned that persistently high oil prices, El Niño-related food inflation, falling equity markets and higher bond yields could reduce growth to 2.3% next year. Central banks are expected to raise rates further, but only modestly because broader wage and price pressures remain limited.

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