Online prediction markets are increasingly favoring Democrats in the race to regain control of the U.S. Senate, although the broader outlook for both chambers remains unsettled. Kalshi bettors assign Democrats a 63% chance of taking the Senate, while Polymarket bettors put the odds at 66%. Bettors favor Democrats in competitive races including Michigan, Maine, New Hampshire and Alaska, and give James Talarico an edge over Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton despite no Democrat having won a statewide race in Texas since 1994. Polling has also moved in the party’s favor: an Economist/YouGov survey found Democrats leading Republicans 52% to 38% among likely midterm voters. Nate Silver said in his Silver Bulletin newsletter that calling the Senate contest a toss-up was "no longer accurate," with three polling-based models putting Democrats’ chances of regaining control between 63% and 69%. The shift comes as President Donald Trump’s approval ratings decline amid affordability concerns and the ongoing Iran war, which he has threatened to escalate. The New York Times’ consolidated figures show Trump with 37% approval and 60% disapproval, while Reuters-Ipsos recorded 32% approval and 66% disapproval. An American Research Group poll put his overall approval at 29% and approval of his handling of the economy at 26%. At a Republican midterm convention in Dallas earlier this month, Trump promised a $5,000 dividend for all adult U.S. citizens if Republicans win both chambers in November. Economists and lawmakers have questioned the plan’s viability because it could cost more than $1.2 trillion, and the pledge has not improved Republican standing in betting markets or polls.