Operation Economic Outcast has shut down 80-90% of Iran’s external flights, Sec. Scott Bessent said, escalating the U.S.-Iran confrontation through sanctions rather than open combat. The United States is targeting Iran’s aviation sector and third-party companies supporting it, aiming to restrict international air transport and disrupt overseas services and logistics. Prediction-market pricing puts the chance of a complete Iranian airspace closure by December 31 at 23.5%, up modestly from previous days, while the probability by September 30 remains 3.8%. Officials and markets are watching the Civil Aviation Organization of Iran for confirmation of further restrictions. A NOTAM (official aviation notice) or press release confirming a full closure would support a YES outcome, while de-escalation statements could shift pricing toward NO.