US 10-year Treasury yield climbs to 5.11%, pressuring emerging Asia

  • US Treasury yields widened spreads against emerging Asian local-currency bonds.
  • 16 basis points lifted the 10-year Treasury yield to 5.11% on September 23.
  • Malaysia’s 10-year bond reached its widest Treasury discount since 2007.

The US 10-year Treasury yield rose 16 basis points on September 23 to 5.11%, its highest level since 2007, widening yield differentials with local-currency sovereign bonds across emerging Asia. Malaysia’s 10-year bond reached its widest discount to US Treasuries since 2007, while Indonesia and Thailand approached comparable historical lows. Persistent inflation concerns, elevated oil prices, expectations for tighter-for-longer Federal Reserve policy, soft Treasury auction demand and strong US growth have kept upward pressure on yields. The move recalls October 2023, when Treasury yields briefly exceeded 5% and unsettled developing-market debt. Foreign outflows from regional bond markets could reduce liquidity, raise borrowing costs and weigh on credit growth, investment and economic activity.

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