US bond yields hit multi-year highs as El-Erian rejects 2007 shock comparison

  • Mohamed El-Erian linked rising US bond yields to borrowing plans, Fed signaling and shifting demand.
  • 5.43% was the latest yield on the 30-year Treasury bond.
  • July 2007 marked the previous comparable 10-year yield level, followed by the 2008 financial crisis.

US Treasury yields have risen across the curve, with the move driven by government borrowing plans, Federal Reserve signaling, geopolitical uncertainty and changing demand from traditional bond buyers, Mohamed El-Erian said. He argued that the increase reflects fundamentals that have been visible for some time rather than a sudden market shock. The one-year yield reached a 25-month high, the two-year yield a 28-month high, and the five-year, 10-year and 30-year yields 19-year highs. The 20-year yield reached a 22-year high. Market observers, including Bull Theory, have compared the 10-year yield with July 2007, when it last reached a similar level. The global financial crisis began three months after that peak, followed by a 56% Nasdaq decline over the next 16 months. El-Erian attributed the intensity of the market response to psychological anchoring, or investor expectations shaped by more than a decade of artificially low yields after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. At the latest check, the 30-year Treasury yielded 5.43%, the 10-year 5.13% and the two-year 4.88%. The S&P 500 was up 12.36% year-to-date, the Nasdaq Composite 15.93% and the Dow Jones about 7%. On Wednesday, SPY fell 0.72% to $767.81, QQQ declined 0.84% to $741.21 and DIA dropped 0.71% to $514.30. In Thursday premarket trading, SPY was down about 0.56%, QQQ about 1% and DIA 0.28%.

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