House Republicans are on track to lose their majority just over one month before the midterm elections, after the nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted 15 races toward Democrats. Democrats need a net gain of three seats, while Cook projects they are most likely to gain between five and 15 seats, producing a 220-230 seat majority next year. Democrats are now favored in 208 races, compared with 205 for Republicans, and 17 Republican-held seats are rated Toss Ups versus five Democratic-held seats. Republicans would need to win a majority of those Toss Up contests to retain control. Republican redistricting gains in other states are being largely offset by new Democratic maps in California and Utah. The National Republican Congressional Committee entered the final stretch with a record $13 million cash-on-hand advantage over the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Cook said many competitive districts were won by President Trump in 2024, but that Trump is underwater in many of them, with dissatisfaction over his handling of the economy a major factor. The median Toss Up district backed Trump by 7 percentage points in 2024. NRCC spokesman Mike Marinella rejected the ratings' importance and argued that Republicans retain stronger campaign resources and organization.