The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% after its Sept. 29 meeting, according to Investing.com forecasts. The move would be the RBA's fourth increase of 25 basis points this year and lift borrowing costs to their highest level in 15 years. ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures imply a 90% probability of the hike. Expectations have strengthened as Australian inflation remains persistent, partly because domestic demand has exceeded supply and higher oil and gas prices linked to the U.S.-Iran war have fed into broader consumer costs. Monthly CPI inflation is expected to reach 4.1%, with core CPI remaining above the RBA's 2%-3% annual target. ANZ analysts expect another 25-basis-point increase in November, which would take rates to their highest level since 2008. RBA Governor Michele Bullock and Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter have warned that inflation is likely to remain elevated, while higher rates and rising unemployment should help restrain prices. Higher borrowing costs could weigh on the ASX 200 and sectors such as technology and mining, although major banks may benefit. The Australian dollar has risen 5.2% against the U.S. dollar in 2026 as the RBA began raising rates and reached a four-year high earlier this year; further hawkish signals could provide additional support.