Markets put 65% odds on October Fed rate hike as US data strengthen

  • Federal Reserve officials strengthened their case for another interest-rate increase as economic momentum persists.
  • Markets priced a 65% chance of an October rate hike at the end of last week.
  • Economists forecast 90,000 September job gains and a 4.1% unemployment rate.

Economic data due this week could strengthen the case for another Federal Reserve rate hike as soon as October. Economists expect inflation-adjusted consumer spending to post its strongest increase of the year in August, while the core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred underlying inflation gauge, is forecast to rise 0.3% in September. Employment figures are expected to show employers added about 90,000 workers and unemployment held at 4.1%. Federal funds futures pricing put the chance of an October hike at about 65% at the end of last week. Officials including Fed Governor Michael Barr, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, Cleveland’s Beth Hammack and Philadelphia’s Anna Paulson have warned that inflation remains too high while noting gradually strengthening economic activity. The outlook is complicated by higher borrowing costs, rising consumer delinquencies and a housing market facing elevated mortgage rates, although artificial-intelligence investment is supporting construction, manufacturing and broader corporate spending. A possible Oct. 28 rate increase would come less than a week before midterm elections, creating a communications challenge for Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, particularly given President Donald Trump’s preference for continued economic growth.

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