Iran doubts Hormuz deal with Washington before Nov. 3 US midterms

  • Iranian officials doubt reaching a Washington deal before the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
  • Brent crude rose 2% to about $106.20 a barrel on Sept. 28.
  • The June Memorandum of Understanding collapsed after roughly two weeks, despite a ceasefire.

Iranian officials privately see a high risk that hostilities with Washington will intensify after the Nov. 3 US midterm elections, with little progress made during talks in New York last week. Tehran says it remains open to diplomacy but doubts the administration of US President Donald Trump would honor an agreement, while the White House similarly distrusts Iran. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has stayed in the US for further mediated discussions after meeting Trump envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. The talks are set to review recent proposals and the current situation, but no US representative will attend the Sept. 28 local meeting. Mediators are seeking a framework stronger than the June Memorandum of Understanding, which produced a ceasefire and increased maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz before collapsing within about two weeks. Washington wants binding commitments to reopen the strait and concessions on Iran’s nuclear program, offering sanctions relief and the release of frozen funds in return for concrete progress. Tehran says it could reopen the waterway within seven days if Washington lifts a naval blockade and oil sanctions, but Trump said Sept. 26 that he rejected the proposal. Oil prices rose as expectations for an agreement faded, adding pressure on Trump and the Republican Party ahead of an election in which Democrats are widely expected to gain ground.

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