Kalshi’s prediction market for Bitcoin reaching $100,000 in 2026 has retraced from 46 cents on Sept. 23 to 34 cents, representing a 34% implied probability. The contract rose from 17% on Sept. 16 as Bitcoin climbed above $80,000 and later $86,000, but fell after BTC slipped below $83,000. Bitcoin peaked just above $97,000 in January and would need a roughly 20% rally from $83,100 to reach $100,000 by Dec. 31. Polymarket assigns a similar 34.5% probability to the year-end target, rising to 50.5% by March 31, 2027, and 81% by Dec. 31, 2027. The pullback in odds has accompanied weaker risk appetite, higher oil after President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a 70.3% CME FedWatch probability of an October Federal Reserve rate hike, and about $500 million in crypto liquidations over 24 hours. Analysts now see a 75% chance that the crypto cycle has turned, although Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer has shifted back toward $100,000 after previously calling 2026 a “year off.”