Analysts raised their 2026 oil-price forecasts, with Brent crude expected to average $89.05 a barrel and U.S. crude $83.90. Forecasts for Brent ranged from $77.27 to $97.60. The outlook reflects expectations that a full restoration of Gulf exports through the Strait of Hormuz remains unlikely in the near term, forcing inventories to absorb much of the supply shortfall. HSBC expects only gradual improvements in shipping and a structurally impaired strait, while Goldman Sachs said Gulf exports, including dark exports, recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day over the last week after doubling in September. Chinese stockpiles, which had reduced the country’s need to compete for cargoes, are beginning to shrink as imports rose to nearly 9 million barrels per day in August. Most analysts see supply risks, rather than demand weakness, driving prices through 2026, although slower global growth should limit prices compared with the highs reached after the conflict began. Inventories are expected to decline substantially in 2026, before the market returns to surplus in 2027 as shipping improves, Gulf production recovers and non-OPEC supply expands.