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Markets see 62.9% chance of no change at October Fed decision

  • Markets expect the Fed to decide on interest rates in October.
  • 62.9% expect no change, while 37.1% expect a 25-basis-point hike.
  • The expectations follow cooling PCE inflation, according to the market update.

Market expectations for the October Federal Reserve decision show a 62.9% probability of no change and a 37.1% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike after cooling PCE inflation. PCE inflation refers to the personal consumption expenditures price measure, which the Fed closely monitors when assessing monetary policy.

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