Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s price in Kalshi’s Texas Senate prediction market (a market forecasting event outcomes) fell from 41% to 38% on Sept. 30 after audio emerged in which he said the Dallas Republican midterm convention had hurt GOP candidates’ numbers. Democratic state Rep. James Talarico led the market at 62% and has also led Paxton in several public polls. The New York Times reported that Paxton made the remarks at a private Washington fundraiser, while senior adviser Nick Maddux called the recording "more manipulated nonsense." A June University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll gave Talarico 67% support among Black voters, compared with 13% for Paxton. Kalshi also priced Democratic control of the U.S. Senate at 63%, versus 38% for Republicans.