Gold has remained above $4,000 an ounce even as U.S. Treasury yields have surged, suggesting that reserve diversification and geopolitical hedging are sustaining a post-2022 demand premium. Before Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, gold generally moved inversely to real yields, with interest rates and the dollar explaining most price movements. That pattern weakened after Western sanctions froze roughly half of Russia’s official reserves, prompting central banks—particularly in emerging markets—to diversify away from dollar assets. MKS PAMP metals strategist Nicky Shiels estimates the resulting debasement and de-dollarisation premium has grown from about $120 an ounce before 2022 to more than $1,000 on average since then, and currently stands at roughly $840. Gold reached a record $5,595 in January before energy-driven inflation linked to the Iran war pulled it back to around $4,161. The retreat contrasted with forecasts made a year earlier that gold would be near $4,980 by the London Bullion Market Association’s conference in Italy the following week. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, a benchmark for global borrowing costs and asset prices, reached its highest level since 2002 on Thursday after recording its biggest quarterly increase this century in July-September. Despite that pressure, gold rose 0.2% on Thursday while the dollar strengthened. China imported 1,077 metric tons of gold in the first eight months of 2026, putting annualized imports on course for their highest level in 11 years, while Poland’s central bank continued buying gold faster than last year. Analysts expect Western investment demand to strengthen after the Federal Reserve’s rate-tightening cycle ends, with gold-backed ETF holdings already near record highs and institutional demand for large bars described as robust.