Oil exports from the Persian Gulf have recovered to 98% of pre-war levels, with average shipments reaching 23.3 million barrels a day, according to Goldman Sachs. The rebound has been driven by higher exports from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, as producers reroute cargoes around the Strait of Hormuz (a key Gulf shipping chokepoint) or rely on U.S. military escorts. Brent rose 4.7% to $102 on Thursday, while one-month futures contracts (agreements for later delivery) remained below the $120 spot market (market for immediate physical delivery) price. Analysts remain divided over whether exports can stay elevated while the Iran conflict continues, particularly because Middle Eastern diesel and gasoline exports are only 58% of pre-war levels and strategic reserves have been drawn down. Goldman Sachs expects Brent to moderate to $85 by year-end and $80 in 2027, but traders warn that replenishing inventories, elevated tanker costs and the risk of attacks on regional energy infrastructure could keep prices high. Britain faces winter gas and electricity bills of about £2,000, with Andy Burnham warning of an energy crisis in the coming months.