Kalshi’s market assigns an 85% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at its October 2026 meeting, after the September jobs report showed the economy added only 29,000 nonfarm payroll jobs. The unemployment rate was 4.2%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the figures on October 2, and the weak result came in well below market expectations, reinforcing bets against another rate increase. The shift began after the September 30 PCE report. PCE, or personal consumption expenditures, is the inflation measure the Fed generally prefers. Kalshi’s hold odds were about 65% after that report, while other readings put them between 72% and 75.5%; those readings showed 25-basis-point hike odds of 24% to 28%. Polymarket and CME fed funds futures have moved in a similar direction. The Federal Open Market Committee will meet on October 27 and 28, with its decision scheduled for October 28 between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. ET. Kalshi is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and allows eligible U.S. participants to trade contracts that settle against the FOMC’s actual target-range decision. Traders have largely priced out an October hike, leaving a surprise increase as the main risk to positioning built around a pause.