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Fed rate-hike odds fall to 17% after cooling jobs data

  • Federal Reserve rate-hike odds declined after nonfarm payroll data indicated slowing labor-market momentum.
  • 17% is the October hike probability, while futures price 22.2 basis points of tightening through 2026.
  • Traders raised the probability of unchanged rates to 83% from 72% before the jobs report.

The probability of a Federal Reserve (U.S. central bank) rate hike at its October meeting fell to 17% from 28% after nonfarm payroll data reinforced signs of cooling momentum in the U.S. labor market. The CME FedWatch Tool shows traders assigning an 83% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged, up from 72% before the jobs report. Federal funds futures now price about 22.2 basis points of cumulative tightening through the end of 2026, down from 25.5 basis points before the employment data. The move reflects stronger market confidence that softer labor conditions will constrain further monetary tightening.

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