CME traders raise odds of unchanged Fed rates to 83% for October

2026年10月2日13:19 (22d ago)

CME traders increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady in October.
83% is the current probability of unchanged rates, up from 72% before the report.
Markets priced 22.2 basis points of cumulative hikes through 2026, down from 25.5 basis points.

U.S. employment data strengthened the view that labor-market momentum is cooling. CME’s FedWatch tool shows traders now assign an 83% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its October meeting, up from 72% before the employment report. The probability of a rate increase fell to 17% from 28%. Federal funds futures also indicate that markets expect roughly 22.2 basis points of cumulative rate increases by the end of 2026, down from 25.5 basis points before the data.