Brazil’s presidential election on October 4 is expected to shape crypto policy for the next few years, with local polls projecting a runoff because neither candidate is expected to win more than 50% of the popular vote. A victory for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva could bring stronger compliance requirements for crypto users and institutions, alongside a possible tax on stablecoin transactions. During Lula’s tenure, the Central Bank issued resolutions increasing oversight of crypto exchanges, while law enforcement agencies moved against criminal gangs and local cartels using crypto assets. The direction under Flavio Bolsonaro is less clear because he has not publicly referred to cryptocurrency, although reports say he defended two former associates of Glaidson Acácio dos Santos, the so-called Bitcoin Pharaoh, whose crypto investment pyramid scheme moved $7 billion and affected more than 100,000 customers. Traditional polls put the candidates on roughly equal footing, while Polymarket assigns Bolsonaro a 59% winning probability and Lula 41% in a market with more than $163 million in volume. Brazil’s central bank has banned prediction markets under Resolution No. 5,298, issued April 24, after the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting said such platforms reproduce the essential elements of fixed quota bets.