CME FedWatch、3月の金利据え置き確率90.3%

CME FedWatch、3月の金利据え置き確率90.3%

CPI発表を控え、市場は今月の利下げ確率を9.7%と織り込み、トレーダーは6月までの累計緩和可能性を49.4%と見積もっている

ファクトチェック
The statement cites a specific probability from the CME FedWatch tool, which is hosted by CME Group. The authoritative primary sources providing direct access to the FedWatch tool and related Fed Funds market data are the official CME Group pages dedicated to market and interest rate products. These are credible sources for rate probability data. A secondary but reliable market news article also references the same figure—90.3%—as derived from CME FedWatch, confirming consistency between independent reports and CME’s official data. Other sources, such as Federal Reserve websites, provide relevant macroeconomic and policy context but do not directly address FedWatch probabilities. There are no credible counterclaims or contradictions among authoritative sources. Therefore, based on cross-verification between primary CME sources and a corroborating secondary source, the claim that the FedWatch tool showed a 90.3% chance of maintaining rates in March is very likely accurate at the time reported.
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要約

原文が短いため要約はなし

用語解説
  • CME FedWatch Tool: 米連邦準備制度の将来の金利変更の確率を、フェッド・ファンド先物取引データに基づき算出する市場指標。
  • CPI (Consumer Price Index): 消費者が購入する商品やサービスの価格の平均変動を追跡することでインフレを測定する主要経済指標。
  • Basis Point: 金融商品の価値や金利の変化率を示すために使われる単位で、1ベーシスポイントは0.01%に相当する。