Kalshi traders are pricing in a relatively mild July U.S. inflation reading, with market odds suggesting consumer prices are more likely to come in below the Dow Jones economist consensus. On Monday, the prediction market showed less than a 55% chance that July's consumer price index, or CPI, exceeds 3.3% year over year and only a 15% chance that it tops 3.4%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect headline inflation to rise 3.4% from a year earlier, down from 3.5% in June. A separate Kalshi contract also pointed to softer core inflation, which strips out food and energy prices, with traders assigning a 47% chance that the rate comes in above 2.4% and an 11% chance that it exceeds 2.5%. The Dow Jones consensus for core CPI is 2.5%, cooler than June's 2.6%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the July CPI report on Wednesday morning. The data matter for the Federal Reserve because inflation readings help shape interest-rate decisions ahead of the central bank's next meeting in September.