Seoul's apartment rental market is coming under renewed pressure as 10,347 jeonse contracts renewed under the 2020 Lease Protection Act amendments expire sequentially from this month through year-end, raising the risk of a supply squeeze and sharper tenant displacement. The strain is being amplified by more landlords choosing owner-occupancy after the government's August 3 tax reform increased the holding tax burden on non-resident single-homeowners. In areas around Songpa-gu's Helio City, 40% to 50% of rental units with September and October expirations have reportedly signaled plans for landlords to move in. The Gangnam 3 Districts account for 2,551 of the expiring units, or 24.7% of Seoul's total. The market is already showing tighter conditions. Seoul apartment jeonse listings stand at 38,157, down 14.1% from the start of the year. When both new two-year contracts and renewals are included, 94,296 rental units are exposed to potential relocation by year-end, while the cumulative relocation volume through 2027 reaches 245,574 units. That mix of shrinking supply and rising move-out demand is fueling concern that jeonse deposits could rise temporarily in the second half. The rental squeeze is also feeding into Seoul's new-home market, where scarce supply is helping support high presale prices despite affordability concerns. Yeongdeungpo-gu's Summit Clavion and Seodaemun-gu's Chungjeong-ro Station Xi Renne, both scheduled to open first-priority subscriptions on the 18th, have set top presale prices in the high 1.8 billion won range for 59-square-meter units. Summit Clavion is about 400 million won higher than a nearby comparable sold five months earlier, while Chungjeong-ro Station Xi Renne is more than 100 million won above Gongdeok Station Xi Renne, sold four months ago. Still, demand has remained firm, with The Sharp Singil Central City recording an average competition ratio of 31.9 to 1 and Gongdeok Station Xi Renne reaching 79.99 to 1. Tax changes are also rippling through the sales market. In Gangnam reconstruction areas, distressed listings have appeared as owners rush to sell before long-term holding deduction benefits are reduced. Apgujeong Hyundai 8th Complex 107-square-meter units that traded at 5.7 billion won in July are now being offered at 4.8 billion won to 4.9 billion won, while a Shin-Hyundai 108-square-meter unit has been listed at 5.9 billion won, 600 million won below its July transaction price. Even so, strict lending limits for homes above 2.5 billion won may restrain deal activity. Broader financing conditions are tightening as well. Bank of Korea Deputy Governor Yoo Sang-dae said the likelihood of additional rate increases is high barring special shocks, while insurance policy loans (borrowing against life insurance value) at five major life insurers climbed to 42.37 trillion won at the end of July, up 2.36 trillion won in six months, as borrowers seek funds outside DSR (debt service ratio) rules. The policy debate has intensified in parallel. At the National Assembly Land, Infrastructure and Transport Committee on the 11th, the People Power Party argued the higher holding tax burden encourages owner-occupancy and reduces rental supply, while the Democratic Party of Korea questioned whether current supply measures are effective. Outside Seoul, designated redevelopment-leading districts in Daejeon are moving in the opposite direction, with listings in six complexes dropping 40% and prices hitting new highs after maintenance district designations.