Brazil June services activity flat, beating 0.2% decline forecast

Brazil's services activity index was unchanged in June from the previous month after falling in May, outperforming economists' forecasts for a 0.2% decline. Data released on the 12th by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, or IBGE (Brazil's statistics agency), also showed a 2.0% increase from a year earlier, above the projected 1.4% rise. Activity fell in four of the five surveyed segments, but gains in information and communications offset broader weakness and kept the overall index steady. JPMorgan analysts said the figures were more resilient than their conventional models implied, reducing downside risks to growth and supporting the bank's forecast for second-quarter GDP to expand at an annualized rate (yearly equivalent pace) of around 2%. The release matters because services account for about 70% of Brazil's economy, making the sector central to both growth and inflation trends. It also arrives after the Central Bank of Brazil cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point) to 14.00% this month, its fourth straight reduction, while keeping forward guidance open-ended. The extent to which resilient services demand feeds into future inflation pressure and affects the pace of additional rate cuts is likely to remain a key focus.

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