10-year US Treasury yield holds near 4.65% as rate-hike odds ease

The 10-year US Treasury yield hovered around 4.65% on Friday, steady after a recent decline as softer-than-expected inflation readings led investors to scale back expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase in September. Producer prices were flat in July, reinforcing the prior day's subdued CPI (Consumer Price Index) report and signaling that inflation pressures remain contained. That has reduced the near-term urgency for the Fed to tighten policy, with markets pricing roughly a 35% chance of a 25 basis point increase in September, down from 55% a week earlier. The data also suggested the early inflation impact from the Middle East conflict and higher energy prices may be fading, though uncertainty over efforts to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz remains an important risk to the inflation outlook.

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