Japan crude futures extend decline as IEA, OPEC cut 2026 demand outlooks

Crude oil futures in Japan's domestic commodity market extended losses on the 14th after the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) both lowered their 2026 oil demand forecasts in monthly reports released on the 12th. The revisions reinforced concerns about a global economic slowdown and raised expectations that the oil market's supply-demand balance could loosen further, prompting broad selling. The front-month January 2027 contract opened on the 13th at 74,530 yen per kiloliter, down 510 yen from the previous settlement, though prices at times turned higher during the session. Downside pressure was checked by continued geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy shipping route, where the positions of the United States and Iran remain far apart and disruptions to shipments are still widely expected. Gold also fell for a second straight session, with selling linked to weaker risk-aversion demand and a stronger dollar. Market participants broadly see a continued tug-of-war between softer demand expectations and supply-side disruption risks, leaving crude highly sensitive to incoming economic data and Middle East developments.

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