Polymarket's odds that the Clarity Act will be signed into law by year-end fell below 20% early this week, after months of uncertainty over whether the Senate can advance the crypto market-structure bill. Traders later priced the measure at a 20% chance of passing by year-end, down from a high of 82% on February 19, with the odds sliding since early May as the Senate calendar tightened and questions over bipartisan support persisted. Senate Majority Leader Thune scheduled a September 15 vote before lawmakers left for the August recess, but American Banker said September 30 is the last clear deadline before campaigns and partisanship make further movement harder. CoinDesk said unresolved bipartisan ethics language remains one of the bill's biggest obstacles, while American Banker reported that a merged text from the Banking and Agriculture Committee versions had recently been released. If enacted, the bill would create a federal framework for digital-asset markets and more clearly split oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission (U.S. markets regulator) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (U.S. derivatives regulator). Supporters say statutory rules would reduce regulatory uncertainty, bring crypto activity onshore and provide more durable guidance than agency action alone. The bill's House passage, Senate committee approval and scheduled September vote keep it alive, but the latest Polymarket reading shows skepticism that the Senate can resolve the remaining issues this year.